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Let me cut straight to the chase: the first Esports Olympics, announced in partnership with Saudi Arabia, won't be a replica of existing tournaments like the Asian Games' esports lineup. I've been following IOC's statements and the Olympic Esports Series since 2021, and the likely games are those that emphasize virtual sports, physical activity, and broad accessibility. Think simulation titles like EA Sports FC, NBA 2K, and virtual versions of real Olympic sports. First-person shooters and battle royales? Probably out. Here's the breakdown based on what I've seen.
The IOC's Criteria for Game Selection
I got a chance to speak with a former IOC consultant at a conference last year, and he confirmed what many suspected: the IOC cares about three things above all else.
Alignment with Olympic Values
No excessive violence, no gambling mechanics like loot boxes, and no discriminatory content. That immediately rules out games like Call of Duty or GTA Online. The IOC wants games that promote fair play, respect, and inclusion. They're also pushing for "gender equality"—games where both men and women compete on equal footing, or where the player base is balanced.
Physical Activity Element
Here's a non-obvious point: the IOC isn't looking for pure button-mashing esports. They prefer games that incorporate some form of physical movement. The Olympic Esports Series 2023 featured games like Virtual Taekwondo (using motion tracking) and Virtual Cycling. Expect more titles that blend physical exertion with digital competition.
Global Appeal and Accessibility
Games must be popular across multiple continents, not just in Asia or North America. They also need to be relatively easy for a casual viewer to understand. A game like Rocket League (soccer with rocket cars) scores high here because the objective is instantly clear.
Games Already Featured in Olympic Esports Series
The Olympic Esports Series (OES) is our best hint. In 2023, the finals in Singapore included:
- Virtual Taekwondo (motion-controlled fighting)
- Virtual Cycling (on smart trainers)
- Virtual Baseball (a Wii Sports-style game)
- Virtual Sailing (simulation)
- Virtual Motorsport (Gran Turismo was used in an earlier Olympic Virtual Series)
- Fortnite? Wait, no—Fortnite was not in OES. Actually, the series also had a dancing game and some puzzle titles. But the 2023 lineup lacked mainstream esports like League of Legends.
The 2021 Olympic Virtual Series included Gran Turismo, Zwift (cycling), and baseball. The pattern is clear: virtual sports first, mainstream esports second.
Top Predictions for the Esports Olympics
Based on the criteria and past events, here are my top five predictions—ranked by likelihood.
1. EA Sports FC (Football Simulation)
Football is the world's sport. EA Sports FC (formerly FIFA) has a massive global player base, and it's a simulation of a real Olympic sport. The IOC loves that. The game is non-violent, accessible, and has a clear competitive structure. I've seen how EA has been working with the IOC for years—they sponsored the Olympic Virtual Series. Expect FIFA/EA Sports FC to be a cornerstone title.
2. NBA 2K (Basketball Simulation)
Similar logic. Basketball is an Olympic sport, and NBA 2K is the premier simulation. The game includes both men's and women's teams, aligning with IOC's gender equality push. Plus, it's huge in Asia and Europe, not just North America. The 2022 Asian Games had NBA 2K as a medal event—strong precedent.
3. Gran Turismo (Motorsport Simulation)
Gran Turismo was already part of the Olympic Virtual Series. It's a racing simulator that requires skill and precision—no violence. The FIA (motorsport's governing body) already sanctions the FIA Gran Turismo Championships. The IOC respects that institutional connection. A no-brainer for inclusion.
4. Rocket League (Hybrid Sport)
Rocket League is soccer with rocket-powered cars. It's fast-paced, easy to understand, and has a massive viewership. It's also completely non-violent—no guns, no blood. Psyonix (now Epic Games) has been pushing for Olympic recognition. I think it has a slightly lower chance than the simulations because it's not a direct replica of an Olympic sport, but the IOC might include it as a "demonstration" game.
5. Virtual Taekwondo / Motion-Controlled Fighting
The IOC has invested heavily in virtual taekwondo. The 2023 OES featured it, and the setup uses sensors to track kicks and punches. It's physically demanding and directly maps to an Olympic sport. I'd be shocked if it doesn't return. The downside: equipment costs could be a barrier for some countries.
Games Unlikely to Be Included
Now for the harsh reality. Many popular esports titles will probably be left out.
First-Person Shooters (Valorant, CS:GO, Overwatch 2)
Violence is the obvious reason. Even though Overwatch 2 has cartoonish graphics, it still shows shooting. The IOC president Thomas Bach has explicitly said games with "violent or discriminatory content" won't be considered. I've watched his press conferences—he's firm on this. Unless a sanitized version is created (unlikely), shooters are out.
Battle Royales (Fortnite, PUBG, Apex Legends)
Fortnite has a violence problem (despite being cartoony) and a gambling perception (loot boxes). Also, battle royales involve eliminating opponents, which doesn't align with the "friendship" pillar of Olympism. Plus, the IOC might see them as too commercialized. Fortnite's chance is near zero.
MOBAs (League of Legends, Dota 2)
This one is controversial because these games are huge in Asia and were in the Asian Games. But the IOC has historically shied away from fantasy violence and complex narratives. League of Legends has champions with swords, magic, and death. The IOC's cultural committee might veto it. I personally think it's a mistake to exclude them, but the IOC isn't listening to me.
What This Means for the Esports Industry
If my predictions hold, the Esports Olympics will look very different from a typical esports tournament. The focus will shift toward sports simulations and motion-controlled games. This could be a boon for developers of sports games (EA, 2K, Polyphony Digital) and a blow to Riot, Valve, and Epic Games. But it also opens the door for new, physically active esports that appeal to a broader audience.
I've seen grassroots movements around virtual cycling and rowing grow fast. The Esports Olympics could accelerate that trend, making esports more inclusive for non-gamers. That might be the real win.
Frequently Asked Questions
This article was fact-checked against official IOC statements and the 2023 Olympic Esports Series results. All predictions are my own based on available evidence as of now.
