The beginning of the new year often heralds economic changes across various sectors including cultural tourism, retail, and brokerage firms, which appear to be experiencing considerable downturnsHowever, in a striking contrast, the market for humanoid robots remains vibrant, soaring against the tide in a buoyant manner.

On the morning of January 14, stocks related to robotics saw a significant surge, with over twenty companies, including Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Hanwei Technology, Hongxun Technology, and Dongfang Precision, hitting their trading limitsOthers, like Aisida and Wuzhou Xinchun, showed gains of more than ten percentThis animated scene in the capital market coincided perfectly with what was on display at the recently concluded CES event, where hundreds of technology firms showcased innovations, particularly notable were Chinese robot manufacturers that took center stage.

Amid the applause surrounding this sector, the stock price of UBTech Robotics, known as the first publicly traded humanoid robotics company, faced an unfortunate declineAt the beginning of the year, it was revealed that major shareholders, including Tencent Holdings, were significantly reducing their stakesSubsequently, speculations emerged regarding the core management team of UBTech also selling off shares, even after a lock-up agreement, stirring widespread discussions.

The emerging phenomenon of humanoid robots evokes a future brimming with possibilities, drawing parallels to the early days of smart speakersSimilarly, smart speakers rode the wave of artificial intelligence and attracted the attention of internet giants, rising rapidly in a storm of excitementHowever, the smart speaker industry now faces a downturn, rendering it a shadow of its former selfCould humanoid robots follow the same trajectory?

Finding a profitable path in the realm of "smart" technology has proven to be challengingThe retail market in China saw a significant recovery in 2024 for most consumer electronics, yet the smart speaker segment has been on a persistent decline for over ten consecutive quarters

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According to a report from Lota Technology, the sales figures for smart speakers in China for the first half of 2024 reached 8.055 million units, which is a year-on-year drop of 29.8%, with total sales amounting to 2.17 billion yuan, down 33.8% compared to the previous year.

The market for smart speakers transitioned rapidly from a flourishing explosion to a stark decline within a few short yearsThe root cause can be attributed to a combination of high expectations created by major tech companies and the disappointing performance delivered by the products, which led consumers to gradually lose their interest and anticipation.

Smart home technology stands as a prime example of the unrealistic expectations set by internet giantsSince the advent of smart speakers by Amazon, there has been an ongoing narrative of using them as the central hub of a smart home ecosystem, facilitating connectivity and leading the way toward intelligent living.

Yet, excessive hype has often resulted in awkward situations later onHumanoid robots are not entirely novel products; for instance, Boston Dynamics, a trailblazer in the industry, has been operational for over 32 yearsTheir newfound fame among investors is largely due to a burgeoning interest in massive AI models that promise to endow these robots with advanced cognitive capabilities.

During the latest CES event, humanoid robots demonstrated impressive feats—they could walk and even perform backflips! Dog-like robots sprinted across the floor, occasionally stopping to "heart" the audienceVacuum robots not only skillfully avoided obstacles but also showcased manipulatory abilities by picking up itemsIt's undeniable that there has been a notable upgrade in what these robots can do.

However, these demonstrations often look more like technical showcases rather than genuine intelligenceFor instance, the robotic systems displayed at the World Robot Conference struggled with simple tasks, such as retrieving double-sided tape but failing miserably to grasp scissors or a measuring tape, and they moved with such sluggishness that efficiency seemed more of a fantasy.

In various performances, unexpected mishaps exposed the limitations of these humanoid robots

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Observing a cooking robot spilling food onto a table adds to the skepticism regarding their functional intelligenceTherefore, what we typically witness in demonstrations is a curated display, perfected for controlled environments, often absent in real-world conditions.

As interest burgeons, a competitive frenzy arisesMany companies are now entering the humanoid robot space—ranging from tech giants to new startups—each striving to identify the next unicorn investmentNotably, from January to October 2024, there were 69 recorded financing events in the humanoid robotics industry globally, with total investments exceeding 11 billion yuan, showcasing numerous high-value funding rounds in China.

Unlike previous trends, automotive companies have now joined the fray, further enlivening the humanoid robot marketMajor players such as BYD, GAC Group, Chery Automobile, Xiaomi, and several others are now investing in this field.

This scene could well overshadow the earlier days of smart speakersBack in the heyday, internet behemoths confidently declared smart speakers as the next revolution in smart hardware, comparable to the transition from smartphones and tabletsSubsequently, companies like Google, Apple, Xiaomi, Baidu, Alibaba, and Huawei rushed to release products, igniting a market frenzy.

However, this chaotic battle did little to guide the smart speaker industry toward a sustainable pathWith tech giants flooding the market and positioning smart speakers as entry points in their smart home strategies, a price war inevitably ensuedThe intense competition squeezed smaller companies out of the market and led larger enterprises into financial turmoil, culminating in a common strategy of “losing on hardware but making profits from services”—a tactic that further degraded user experience due to unresolved issues with product intelligence.

Today, the humanoid robot sector is likely to witness similar chaos as various companies, from car manufacturers to tech firms, step into the field

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A sharp decline in prices has recently become a trend, illustrated by domestic manufacturer Yushu Technology launching its second-generation humanoid robot, the G1, starting at just 99,000 yuan, capturing considerable industry attentionShortly thereafter, Zhongqing Robot unveiled the PM01 humanoid robot priced at an astonishing 88,000 yuan.

Even Tesla has made headlines with its promise that its humanoid robot, Optimus, could begin mass production in 2026, with final prices rumored to be as low as $20,000.

While pricing strategies shift downward may seem like a natural market evolution, critics argue that this leads to serious concerns regarding performance and qualityExamples include Yushu Technology's G1 being perceived as lacking free mobility and failing to include essential operational control systems; another company, EX Robotics, confidently stated that it achieved profitability with a production volume of around 500 units, but little was revealed about its dynamic capabilities.

A knowledgeable industry insider noted that competition is becoming incredibly fierce in the humanoid robot sector, with emerging companies even engaging in unfair pricing wars, with some vendors posting figures of as low as 39,800 yuan, intentionally incurring losses merely to gain visibility.

If these unregulated price wars persist, they risk diverting the industry into perilous territoryThe entry of major players into the fray would almost certainly intensify the battleFurthermore, a harsh reality is that in the race for capital, companies may feel compelled to abandon their long-term research efforts, leading to conflicts between capital pressure and commercial viabilityThe recent controversies surrounding UBTech serve as a clear warning in this regard.

Could it be that humanoid robots are mere products of premature hype? The circumstances surrounding the explosion of the humanoid robot market bear a striking resemblance to those of smart speakers.

In 2017, rapid advancements in voice recognition technology became one of the few bright spots in artificial intelligence, prompting tech giants to jockey for position in this space

Smart speakers emerged as a perfect platform for deploying voice technology that was in need of a practical applicationIn a similar vein, humanoid robots also present an ideal vehicle for AI models that have slowed down, providing newfound vitality.

At present, embodied intelligence is being viewed as the next stage in the evolution of AI models, with humanoid robots being the frontrunners in the raceWhile the influx of innovations certainly generates opportunities for the development of smart hardware, the newly minted narratives surrounding humanoid robots feel as if they have been thrust into the limelight, presenting stories more readily understandable, relatable, and commercially appealing than their counterparts.

Yet, the decline of smart speakers has established a clear precedent: a product arriving too soon to the market, often before its technology has matured, is one that can lead to overwhelming disappointmentHumanoid robots today, facing numerous developmental challenges, may possibly encounter even more roadblocks in their growth trajectory than the speakers did.

For example, mass production remains an elusive goalElon Musk had promised that Tesla’s Optimus would achieve this milestone by the end of 2024, yet recent updates revealed delayed projections, and questions linger as to whether these new timelines represent genuine prospects or mere rhetoric.

As 2024 approaches, a growing number of humanoid robot enterprises are claiming “mass production,” but skepticism lingersThe steep manufacturing costs undeniably present significant barriers to widespread adoption.

To illustrate, Boston Dynamics' Atlas humanoid robot reportedly has a staggering manufacturing cost of approximately $2 million, while Tesla's Optimus robot hovers around the $100,000 markRecent research by Macquarie indicated that the hardware expenses for humanoid robots are estimated at about $50,000.

With production costs still high and competition intensifying, pushing yet-to-mature products toward market release raises substantial concerns

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