Morning Brief FM | February 3, 2025

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The financial markets concluded another tumultuous week, marked by notable shifts and uncertainties that have reignited discussions among investors and analysts alikeOn Friday, a pivotal moment unfolded as the S&P 500 index experienced a dip during intraday trading, reflecting a broader trend as major indices grappled with volatility.

The Chinese stock market struggled, evidenced by a more than 3% decline in the China concept indexIn contrast, the US dollar strengthened, contributing to a pullback in gold prices, which had recently seen new highsThis substantial fluctuation raises questions about investor sentiment and the ongoing challenges permeating the global economy.

In a turn of events reflecting investor resilience, the Nasdaq, which initially soared over 1%, ultimately fell while still managing to achieve three consecutive months of gainsOn the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down more than 300 points but has enjoyed a three-week streak of growthNotably, Apple and Tesla were focal points this week, with Apple experiencing a 4% surge in early trading only to reverse course, while Tesla’s stock saw a cumulative increase of 4% following their financial report over the past two daysThis back-and-forth movement underscores the highly reactive nature of tech stocks amidst earnings season, showcasing a snapshot of the unpredictable landscape.

Companies across the sphere reflected mixed results, with Microsoft facing a 6.5% dip, while its rival Meta Platforms saw gains exceeding 6%. Interestingly, Meta's trajectory is noteworthy as it reaches new highs, highlighting the contrasting fortunes within the tech sectorAdditionally, DeepSeek emerged as a significant player, with NVIDIA witnessing a nearly 16% fall throughout the week twinned with Alibaba’s almost 11% increase, signaling shifting dynamics in stock valuations.

European markets were buoyant, marked by the pan-European STOXX 600 index achieving all-time highs over consecutive trading days, culminating in a six-week winning stretch, the longest it has seen in the past ten months

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ASML Holdings showcased a strong performance, experiencing a nearly 12% rise following their financial results, further emphasizing the investment community's appetite for growth in the semiconductor sector.

Amidst rising tensions related to “tariff uncertainty,” U.S. futures faced a steep decline at the outset of the Asian market session, with Nasdaq futures plummeting 2.7% and S&P futures down 1.8%. These movements illustrate a palpable sense of apprehension regarding policy changes that could affect trade relations, particularly with ChinaThe dollar index saw a rise of approximately 0.9%, while WTI crude oil futures increased nearly 3%. Gold, which often serves as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, saw only a slight uptick.

In the news spotlight, Sam Altman from OpenAI acknowledged the overwhelming impact of DeepSeek on the AI landscape, expressing recognition of OpenAI’s dwindling competitive edge and revealing considerations for open-sourcing certain elements of their technologyThis introspection aligns with recent developments as OpenAI unveiled its inference model, o3-mini, available for free users for the first time—an effort to democratize access to advanced AI capabilities.

In tech analysis, Ming-Chi Kuo, a prominent analyst known for his insights on Apple, projected that if Apple does not alter its strategy, it may witness a mid-single-digit decline in iPhone revenue by 2026. He argues that despite Apple's continuous product improvement and increasing engagement with Apple Intelligence, these factors may not sufficiently counteract the anticipated decrease in shipmentsHis cautionary viewpoint serves as a warning signal for the tech giant, inviting scrutiny into its future approach as competition intensifies.

Electric vehicle sales showcased varying performances, with XPeng reclaiming its position as the top newcomer in the market, while Xiaomi's SU7 reached over 20,000 deliveries for four consecutive months

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BYD notably saw a massive 49% year-over-year increase in NEV sales, demonstrating a robust demand persistently driving the EV market's momentum.

The U.S. stock market displayed resilience amidst the data turbulence, with major players in the 'Magnificent Seven' reporting solid earnings performance, raising future profit expectations from an initial estimate of 22% to 26% for the fourth quarterMeanwhile, a moderate core PCE inflation index indicated stability, leading to alleviated concerns over extreme inflation pressures.

Globally, India has proposed significant changes to raise the income tax threshold, aiming to stimulate consumer spending while simultaneously addressing fiscal challengesThis change is poised to benefit approximately 10 million individuals, raising the number of tax-exempted citizens significantlyWhether India will successfully navigate both stimulating its economy and reducing its deficit remains a question among economists.

January marked a significant rebound for gold, showcasing volatility that many attribute to the uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policiesThe surge led to gold prices soaring 7% since the beginning of the month, the strongest performance recorded since 2015. The implications of this upheaval resonate throughout the commodities market, revealing a significant increase in demand for physical gold bars, particularly from the central banks globally, amidst growing concerns over geopolitical matters.

As news traverses the AI landscape, subscription growth for ChatGPT nearly doubled, reaching 15.5 million usersSuch figures suggest a rapidly expanding consumer interest in AI applications, further sustained by a16z’s partner, Anjli Mittal’s assertion that the demand for GPUs will continue to rise in alignment with innovation led by DeepSeekThis sentiment echoes across the sector, fostering a robust narrative around AI’s rapid evolution and its cascading effects on associated industries.

As discussions unfold within Silicon Valley, figures like Yann LeCun shed light on the prevalent “misplaced superiority” syndrome, showcasing a cultural introspection concerning innovation dynamics

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